Predicting drinking onset with discrete-time survival analysis in offspring from the San Diego prospective study

Abstract 

Previous research has shown that an early onset of drinking is associated with a range of problematic drinking outcomes in adulthood. However, earlier drinking is also linked to additional characteristics that themselves predict alcohol problems including male gender, a family history (FH) of alcoholism, age, race, parental alcoholism, depression symptoms, prior drug use, and conduct problems. This study tested the relationship between the age of first drink (AFD) and a range of risk factors that predict the onset of alcohol use. Participants were offspring from the San Diego Prospective Study (SDPS) who were at least 15 years old at the time of their most recent interview (n=147). Discrete-time survival analysis (DTSA) was used to relate multiple characteristics to the hazard function of alcohol onset across a relevant age range. The results demonstrated the predicted relationships to AFD for conduct problems, male gender, prior marijuana use, and a FH of alcoholism, even when these characteristics were estimated together. Furthermore, an interaction occurred such that offspring with both conduct problems and marijuana use were at substantially higher risk for alcohol use onset during this time period than would be predicted from the effect of these two risk factors alone. However, age at interview, ethnicity, parent education, and depressive symptoms did not predict the pattern of onset of drinking. Implications for future research and prevention efforts are discussed.

Keywords: Drinking onset, Conduct problems, Survival analysis, Family history